Black Bar
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More on the Four-bar Variation of the Evening Star Candlestick Pattern
One of the outstanding attributes of Japanese Candlestick financial price reporting is its quite uncanny ability – most of the time, but not all the time – to accurately predict major changes in the direction of price trend. Some Candlestick formations are deemed to be complete with a single price bar; some are complete with two; and some with three or even four.
The “Bearish Engulfing” pattern is one of my favorites. It is quickly spotted when it appears, and very often it is right on target in calling a reversal. The classic Bearish Engulfing pattern is a three-bar formation, and is seen at the top end of an extended advance in prices. It is characterized by a tall white candle as the first bar, indicating that prices advanced during the time period which the bar represents. The second bar of the three will display tight price disparity between the opening price and the closing price (the “real body”) and is located above the real body of the first bar. That second bar is the “Star” of the Evening Star pattern. The third bar will be a tall black candle, indicating a meaningful decline in prices from those of the Star. The entire construction is considered bearish.
My particular thesis has to do with a Four-Bar Variation on the Evening Star, which is a pattern not recognized in the literature as a separate pattern, or even as a Candlestick pattern at all. I respectfully maintain otherwise, because it appears relatively frequently and seems to possess the same reversal predictive capacity as does the classic Evening Star. I know that I watch for it all the time, because in my experience it has proven to be worthwhile to pay attention to it.
In a typical four-bar variation of the Evening Star, it will be identified as such if it appears only at the top end of a lengthy price advance, just as in the classic version. Likewise, the first bar will be “classic” in that it will be a tall white candle. The next part makes the difference: instead of a single Star between the tall white candle and the tall black candle, there will instead be two Stars, the closing prices of which will most likely be higher than the closing price of the tall white candle and the price ranges of which will be constrained between opening and closing – that is, they will have small “real bodies” – just as in the classic version. The fourth bar will be a tall black Candle, indicating a substantial fall in prices, exactly like the third bar in the classic.
To my mind, the two small Stars (being the second and third bars) only add to the potential power of the pattern, in that for two days in a row, not just one, investors try to drive prices higher but their effort results only in indecision. The pressure for a downturn (or the lessening of pressure for continued price rise) has been building one day longer; and when the turn comes, it seems to have the potential, at least, of greater force to drive prices lower.
A good recent example of this Four-bar Variation of the Evening Star occurred in the Russell 2000 Index on October 31 and November 3, 4, and 5, 2008. The pattern is as I’ve described it: first, it occurred at the top end of a long price advance; second, a tall white bar emerged, which was followed by two small stars, both exhibiting higher closing prices than the first bar; and the pattern was completed by a tall black bar signifying a substantial decline in prices. The decline from the top price of the second Star to the bottom of the subsequent tall black Candle was 166.44 points. On a closing-to-closing basis, the decline was 29.4%, accomplished over a 12-day trading period.
The long and short of it is that this Four-bar Variation of the Evening Star Candlestick Pattern appears to have the same predictive price-reversal capacity as the classic three-bar pattern - possibly more so. I submit that it deserves recognition as a legitimate variation of a classic Japanese Candlestick pattern.
About the Author
The author is an experienced investor; a retired corporate CEO and attorney; creator of the "Candelaabra" technical analysis system for use in all financial markets; has passed the NASD Series 65 Investment Adviser exam; publishes his free investment newsletter three times per week. It's ready and waiting for you right here at http://www.candlewave.com/ Click now for instant access!
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![]() NEW Pro Missile Flat Aerobars special Craig Alexander edition US $455.00
|
![]() Profile Design Carbon X integrated stem aero bars triathlon tt time trial US $142.50
|
![]() NEW Profile Design Aerolite Aero Bars US $20.50
|
![]() MUSTACHE HANDLEBARS Black US $43.00
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![]() Profile Design Century Aerobar US $30.00
|
![]() New Fixie Road Bike Cork Handlebar Tape with End Plugs Black US $8.99
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![]() Profile Design Carbon Stryke Ironman Aero Bars Aerobars US $52.00
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![]() FSA GOSSAMER 318 40cm Alloy Road Bike Handlebar New Ergo Bend 185 1280 US $9.97
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![]() Profile Design T2 Aerobars and Base Bar US $110.00
|
![]() FSA ENERGY 318 40cm Alloy Road Bike Handlebar Traditional Bend 185 1140 US $14.97
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![]() Road Bike Drop Handlebars Bars Anatomic 254 41cm NEW US $4.97
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![]() Road Bike Black Cork Handlebar Tape W End Plugs NEW US $3.97
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![]() 2011 Ritchey SuperLogic Logic II Carbon Bar 42cm US $50.00
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![]() 2Road Bike Bicycle Cork Handlebar Tape Wrap w Bar Plug US $.99
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![]() ROAD BIKE CARBON HANDLEBAR TAPE BICYCLE BAR WRAP BLACK US $6.87
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![]() 260mm TO 318mm BIKEBICYCLE HANDLEBAR BAR STEM SHIM US $.99
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![]() Cane Creek 200tt Brake Lever SetAeroTime TrialNEW US $32.87
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![]() CITY TREKKING COMFORT ROAD BICYCLE BIKE HANDLEBAR BAR US $4.37
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![]() ROAD BIKE HANDLEBAR TAPE BLACK GRAY CAMO BICYCLE BAR US $9.87
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![]() RaceFace Altas FreeRide 1 2 Rise Stealth 318 785mm Width Handlebar US $.99
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![]() 260 TO 318 HANDLEBAR BAR STEM ADAPTER SHIM 318mm NEW US $1.37
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![]() NEW Fixie Bullhorn Handlebar Bar Bike Bicycle 42cm Black US $18.99
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![]() NEW Fixie Bullhorn Handlebar Bar Bike Bicycle 42cm Anodized Gold US $18.99
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![]() NEW Fixie Bullhorn Handlebar Bar Bike Bicycle 42cm White US $18.99
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![]() FSA Vision J Bend Shimano Bar End Shift Lever Adapters US $2.95
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![]() 2011 Scott Bar End Plugs Black NEW US $.95
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![]() 2011 Scott Pilot Pro Road Handlebar 42cm Black NEW US $6.95
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![]() Scott Components Handlebar Bar Ends Plugs Black NEW US $.95
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![]() Race Face Cadence 46cm Road Bike Handlebars Black NEW US $7.95
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![]() Deda Newton Zero 100 Handlebars 44cm Black US $1.35
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![]() Easton Delta Force Bullhorn Bar 40CM NEW OLD STOCK US $35.00
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![]() PROFILE DESIGN TT T2 COBRA Carbon Bike Extensions Clip ons Aero Handlebar NEW US $98.97
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![]() Fixie Track Single Speed Bike Alloy Drop Bar Pistabar 254 Handlebar 40cm Black US $37.99
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![]() Fixie Track Single Speed Bike Alloy Drop Bar Pistabar 254 Handlebar 40cm Silver US $37.99
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![]() Fixie Track Single Speed Bike Alloy Drop Bar Pistabar 254 Handlebar 40cm Gold US $37.99
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![]() Fixie Track Single Speed Bike Alloy Drop Bar Pistabar 254 Handlebar 40cm White US $37.99
|
![]() Bontrager 44cm Carbon Race X Lite handlebar Unused US $66.00
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![]() New Edge Ergo Wing Alloy Handlebars 40 42 or 44 cm US $39.99
|
![]() PROFILE DESIGN TMAG aero bar set 318 mm clamp size 260 mm compatible $200 usd US $89.99
|
![]() PROFILE DESIGN TT SONIC CSX 245 Carbon Bike Extensions Aero Handlebar NEW US $119.97
|
![]() New Edge Full Carbon Ergo Wing Handlebars 40 or 42cm US $119.00
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![]() HED GRAND TOUR OVERSIZED GTO HANDLEBAR 44cm bar 318 NO RESERVE US $13.38
|
![]() Cycling Bicycle BIKE HANDLEBAR BAR GRIPS NEW US $1.59
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![]() BBB Black Synthetic Handlebar Bar Tape Shock Absorbing Chrome End Plugs BHT 01 US $1.99
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![]() Salsa Bell Lap Cyclocross Handlebars US $45.00
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![]() Fixie BMX Trick Raiser Handlebar Bar Bike Bicycle 60 cm Clamp 222 mm White US $26.66
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![]() New Mountain Bike Bicycle Cycling Multi Position Handlebar Grips Ends Pair US $10.80
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